Wednesday, January 13, 2010

DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATES

1-Economic Factors

Economic factors include ;

- Economic policy which is issued by government agencies and CB(Central Banks)

- Economic conditions which denoted through economic reports and other economic indicators

Some other economic factors:

-Government budget deficits or redundancy

-Balance of trade levels and trends

-Inflation levels and trends

-Economic growth and health

-Productivity of an economy





2-Political Conditions

International, internal and regional political conditions and events may have a deep effect on Forex market.
All exchange rates are sensible to political inconsistency and expectations about the new ruling party. Political turn of the dice and instability can have a negative impact on a nation’s economy. For example, destabilization of coalition governments in Pakistan and Thailand can negatively affect the value of their currencies. Similarly, in a country experiencing financial difficulties, the rise of a political faction that is perceived to be fiscally responsible can have the opposite effect. Also, events in one country in a region may spur positive or negative interest in a neighboring country and, in the process, affect its currency.



3-Market Psychology

Market psychology and trader perceptions influence the foreign exchange market in a variety of ways

-Flights to quality

-Long term trends

-Buy the rumor, sell the fact
-Economic numbers

-Technical trading considerations

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